China Macroeconomic Situation Analysis
First, prevent financial risks
1, curb asset bubbles
What is an asset bubble? That is, asset prices go too fast and too high. Asset bubbles are mainly concentrated in the stock market and housing market. From the current situation in China, the stock is unlikely, based on three judgments:
First, the main function of the SFC at the moment is to strengthen supervision;
Second, the securities sector is extremely concerned about the allocation of funds outside the field;
Third, large-scale IPO speed.
Expected the next five years, the stock market will show signs of slowing. For now, the asset bubble is mainly in the housing market. Whether there is a bubble in the housing market, with a focus on the relationship between housing supply and rigid demand. Real estate has two attributes, namely residential demand and investment demand. Japan did not get out of the quagmire until 1985 because housing supply far surpassed rigid demand, combined with shearing in the United States, causing the housing bubble to burst. Property exceeds the rigid demand, once there is no residential function, there is no speculative function and investment function.